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Moody's says that consumer savings rates are rising after bottoming out in June 2022. "We still see it as a normalization, not a deterioration story when we talk about consumer credit.'' But consumer loan delinquency rates are at 2019 levels, and below any level ever seen before 2014, according to Federal Reserve data. At JPMorgan, mortgage credit quality is so solid that the bank reported no net chargeoffs in the second quarter. Overall, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says consumer spending on new vehicles rose $40 billion to $642.4 billion in the first half of the year, with most gains coming in the second quarter.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Arun Sundaram, haven't, Alastair Borthwick, Moody's, Scott Hoyt, Jeremy Barnum, it's, Barnum, David Fieldhouse, Hoyt, Sundaram, Horton, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Chevrolet, Knapp, Getty, Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, Bank of America, CFRA, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Federal, Wall, General Motors, GM, Ford, U.S, Toll, Pride Locations: Houston , Texas
The U.S. economy showed much stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter than previously thought, according to a big upward revision Thursday from the Commerce Department. The upward revision helps undercut widespread expectations that the U.S. is heading toward a recession. Consumer spending, as gauged by personal consumption expenditures, rose 4.2%, the highest quarterly pace since the second quarter of 2021. Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 4.9% in the period, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point. That was a decline of 26,000 from the previous week and well below the estimate for 264,000.
Persons: Dow, Scott Hoyt, Hoyt Organizations: Commerce Department, Gross, Social Security, Moody's, Federal, Fed, Labor Department Locations: U.S, department's
"The economy is currently displaying genuine signs of resilience," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon in New York. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended June 24. Continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for June's unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in May. GDP consumer contributionEconomists had expected first-quarter GDP growth would be raised slightly to a 1.4% pace.
Persons: Gregory Daco, Unadjusted, Rubeela Farooqi, Jerome Powell, Amira Karaoud, Scott Hoyt, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Financial, U.S, Treasury, REUTERS, Conference Board, Gross, Commerce Department, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, EY, New York, Minnesota, Ohio, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey, White Plains , New York, Spanish, Madrid, Louisville, U.S, West Chester , Pennsylvania
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualized rate, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate of third-quarter GDP. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth would be raised to a 2.7% rate. Gross domestic income (GDI) had contracted at a 0.8% pace in the second quarter. Profits from current production decreased $31.6 billion in the third quarter after rising $131.6 billion in the second quarter. Inventories subtracted from GDP growth in the third quarter.
U.S. consumer sentiment slumps; inflation expectations edge up
  + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The University of Michigan's preliminary November reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 54.7, down from 59.9 in the prior month. The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations edged up to 5.1% from 5.0% in October. Data on Thursday showed consumer prices rose less than expected in October, pushing the annual increase below 8% for the first time in eight months. While that is consistent with a shift in spending to services from goods, some economists do not expect a collapse in consumer spending. "The correlation between changes in monthly consumer sentiment and real consumer spending is low, especially for this measure and especially in the short run," said Scott Hoyt, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 102.5 this month from 107.8 in September. Consumers were also more inclined to buy a house, probably encouraged by a sharp slowdown in house price inflation. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.9% in August, the second straight monthly drop. Prices fell 0.7% on a monthly basis after decreasing 0.6% in July. It was the first time since March 2011 that monthly prices posted back-to-back declines.
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